date 20 June 2009 02:49
subject Re: Tehran
Hi, I'm happy I got news from you. And nice ones too! I totally agree with your change of opinion. I had this strong impulse last saturday when I wrote you "Maybe it's time for revolution in your country. If they play you and aggressively keep power, you have no choice but to organise and start a war. That's how things usually go. Maybe it's just time for you people who want change to go into illegality and fight the regime down, whatever it takes... Taking control of your destiny requires passion and sacrifice".
This regime is dead. You have won. Maybe not just now, and surely some dramatic times lay ahead, but it's over.
Don't bother sending photos that you pick on the web, I got them already. On the contrary the pictures you take of demonstrations are great!!!
Actually what I do want to say right now is that the real power struggle starts now. Everybody was so surprised about what happened in the past 7 days, and the rapidness at which the situation is evolving is extraordinary. The demonstrators, you, your friends, everybody suddenly coming to conscience that you are so massively many, and astonished, shocked in strange disbelief by this fact. But once you realize this power you have, you understand you want to use it, and now you are afraid because you realize you will not step back and that the real fight starts today. Step by step you realized this week it is not against Ahmadinejad you are fighting but against Khamenei himself. At first you thought you respected the regime and just wanted Ahmadinejad to resign but now you understand it's really the whole regime you want to destroy. At first you very strongly supported Moussavi but now you realize he was the less worse choice and you are growing so much stronger than him than even him and his friends will be swept away by the tidal wave which all of you are about to unleash on the regime.
The regime is helping you so much by making mistake after mistake. First they let you have hope in election, second they steal your votes and mock you, third they kill you, and now the biggest and most unbelievable mistake which shows how desperate they are: the Supreme leader himself enters the battle. It's like a game of chess, once the king is exposed means that he will be chess mate very soon. It's a basic of politics, why we have a prime minister here? So that he takes all the shit and protects the president, once the PM is totally burnt out, the president appoints a new one and stays protected in his "presidential aura". The fact that Khamenei exposed himself today in this bad joke organised television show with this silly crowd of silent people shouting at the exact same moment the exact same slogans in the exact same tempo (!!!!) means that he has nobody else to put in front line because Ahmadinejad is already burnt to the bones (and they really know how burnt he is because they know the real results of the election). Therefore this means that now the protesters will show they don't respect the supreme Leader and attack him personally, and by massively taking the street again tomorrow despite the fact that he himself went on television to forbid it means he also has no credit left and that he is also burnt to the bones. THe people now fight him and by fighting him they are fighting down the whole system. The beauty of autocracy is that the whole system and the leader are tightly tied up together.
The question now is not if the regime will fall or when the regime will fall but how the regime will fall. They can go peacefully because you are so many again on the streets that they realize they can't stop you, or they desperately hang to power and it becomes bloody and they are crushed because all of you have already decided you will not stop because you've had enough of this mascarade. My Iranian friend here tells me that emails he got from his Tehran friends tonight show that right now they are all afraid of what happens next. This is because they have already decided not to stop and are frightened at the prospect of dramatic times to come because of your collective resolve to shape a new Iran.